State of the Nation | January 2024

Download the State of the Nation | January 2024 Report

"We’re starting 2024 with more certainty around the Australian housing market than we have seen for several years. Having now reached what we expect is the top of the interest rate cycle or very close to it, buyers and sellers will be able to transact with more confidence in a pricing environment that will be less volatile than in previous years.  

We’re expecting national price movements between a negative 1 per cent to plus 3 per cent for the year. This is far less volatile than in previous years. However, it’s important to recognise that within this range, there will be suburbs and markets that move at a far greater rate. For this reason, now more than ever it will be critical to receive the very best local advice on specific markets and communities. 

In 2023 we saw an overall increase in prices of 8.1 per cent, according to CoreLogic with the strongest performer the Perth market with a 15.2 per cent gain. We expect to see Perth continue to outperform other markets certainly for the first half of 2024. 

National price growth will slow due to reduced borrowing capacity for many buyers and the impact of the rising interest rate cycle which is still filtering through to mortgage holders. We expect supply levels to rise due to the increased certainty around prices. This is a positive development for people looking to buy or sell in 2024. 

South East Queensland growth is evidenced by Brisbane now eclipsing Melbourne’s median house price with Melbourne now slipping to number four nationally, with further weakness in early 2024 making that city an attractive market into 2025 and beyond.

Australia is one of a select few countries displaying great international attractiveness. That will ensure continued strength in rental growth, and underpin a stable residential market through 2024."

GEOFF LUCAS

MANAGING DIRECTOR AND GROUP CEO, THE AGENCY.